Friday, June 23, 2017

5.30am lahaina has head high waves. Couldn't see much along the road, but the wind was calm everywhere.

Friday 6 23 17 morning call

Yesterday was another gorgeous day of surfing on the south shore. Lahaina town was light offshore in the first 1.5 hours of light and windless in the second. I saw two waves during my session that were two 10's:
- size: head and a half
- shape: flawless
- quality: Indonesian

We knew this swell was going to last all week (and more), so there's more to be had today. I don't have any photos of the day (I had a morning work shift, after which I went windfoiling), so here's an amazing video from the Skeleton Coast in Namibia instead. The last wave is ridiculous: a full minute of one long barrel after another. I've never seen anything like that. It's a very demanding wave, with a steep drop and a a thick lip. It's sand, but it breaks in a foot of water and can punish you. It looks like pro's only to me, and that footage is mind blowing. Enjoy the vision.

2am significant buoy readings
South shore

W
3.5ft @ 15s from 125° (ESE)

SW
3.6ft @ 15s from 148° (SE)

SE
5.3ft @ 14s from 151° (SSE)

Can't really rely on the accuracy of the direction (for the reason I explained many times: the windswell (which I don't report) influences it), but the much higher reading at the SE buoy indicates that today's energy is bigger to our east. Bottom line is: there's waves also today. Check the webcams if the sun is up. I set a new seasonal record of early going to bed time and consequently I'm up very early and I plan on being out at dawn.

North shore
Pauwela
4.1ft @ 8s from 62° (ENE)

Nothing just yet on the north shore, other than the indicated windswell that, seen the unblocked direction, should make for some small waves at Hookipa.

Today I'm pushing the zoom to 300%, so we can have a closeup of the Maui winds. The color scale got cut out, but it's pretty intuitive and the every color represents a 5 knots range. This is noon.


North Pacific shows a tiny WNW fetch, a small N one and a NE elongated windswell one setting up.


South Pacific shows a bunch of fetches:
1) another example of a fetch I would have even noticed without the great circles map on the right. No idea of how much energy we will receive from it. Gonna be hard to detect it even when and if it arrives, because of the multiple sources
2) a Tasman sea one
3-4) two southerly fetches, one closer, one further away. Nothing major, but I like both and waves are being made for us.


Morning sky looks like classic trades, and another stunning day is on its way.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

5.45am size is down compared to yesterday, but that could also be due to a minus tide around 8. I saw waist to shoulder and clean conditions everywhere along the road, lahaina town has up to head high plus.

Thursday 6 22 17 morning call

Spectacular day of surfing on the south shore yesterday, conditions were excellent pretty much everywhere in the morning. Somehow I managed to take two photos of the only spots that were affected by the wind.


This one is a much better way.


3am significant buoy readings
South shore
W
3.4ft @ 14s from 167° (SSE)

SW
3.6ft @ 15s from 147° (SE)

SE
4.2ft @ 15s from 156° (SSE)

Outer buoys still up, the indication of the period is only the dominant one, but there's a range of period and directions because of the many different sources, that should make for higher consistency (read Pat Caldwell's explanation). The bottom line is: plenty waves also today with another pulse forecasted to pick up later in the day.

In the meantime that Surfline fixes the readings of the Pearl Harbor buoy (I forgot to send them an email, but I will do that this morning), one very important detail about it is provided by Pat Caldwell:
The southern Hawaii NOAA buoys show dominant wave energy has spread within 14-17 seconds. The wider spread allows more consistency to the larger sets. The estimate of deep water swell height at the southern buoys is 5-6 feet. The new pacioos Pearl Harbor entrance buoys shows swell height closer to 2 feet. This low value is likely associated with the shallow location of 35 m. The recent Barbers Point buoy was in 300 m. The additional travel of the swell over the mamala bay shelf results in a frictional loss of swell size as measured at Pearl Harbor. The swell direction at Pearl Harbor is also influenced by the sea floor shape and proximity to the deep water channel, which biases the direction toward 165 degrees.

North shore
3.6ft @ 8s from 75° (ENE)

Not much to play with on the north shore, Hookipa at sunset was pretty much flat.

In the attempt of making these maps a little easier to read, I'm now gonna try to use a 240% magnification before snipping it for the blog. This is noon.


North Pacific offers small scattered fetches all around, but the most significant one is the one straight north of us, belonging to that low that I pointed out yesterday. But I was wrong in saying that is the one that will be responsible for the NE swell in the forecast for the first days of next week (4f 11s from 50 on Monday), since this one will only make for a couple of feet 10s over the weekend. The fetch (not oriented towards us yet) that will make for that bigger NE swell is the one indicated by the red arrow. Sorry about that mistake. Not that it changes much...


South Pacific offers a nice elongated southerly fetch with a central section of winds up to pockets of 35knots. Nothing to be excited about, but the south shore shouldn't go completely flat after the current long lasting one.


Classic trades sky and another stunning day is on its way.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

6.30am hookipa looked knee high, Maalaea had some waves (don't feel like guessing the size, since I didn't stop), clean with moderate offshore, Ukumehame is chest to head high and clean but closing out in the big sets. That's all I saw so far, I'm waiting on a surf guide customer. More reports later.

Wednesday 6 21 17 morning call

Pretty spectacular day of surfing yesterday on the south shore. I first surfed a spot in Lahaina, the whole town had a bad morning sickness on it, but at least it was uncrowded (and still fun) when I hit it. After the session, I took these two shots from the parking lot and they show how much and how quickly it cleaned up. A little unlucky with the timing lately, but it was crowded at that point. Plus, the onshore flow started quite soon after.


A floater on a head high closeout section in front of a feet of water. He free fell in front of it and hopefully didn't hit the reef, but I got the feeling that next time he's gonna kick out instead.

Belly high can be extremely fun if it's perfect like that.

I took this shot from the car on my way to work after the second session in a nearby spot. I got some excellent waves and now I have a new problem: I have two very good 6.2's and I got to pick which one I want to keep and that's the biggest problem I have at the moment. What a life.

This might be one of the very first SUP foiling contests of history. Coming up the 24th and 25th in Waikiki. If Austin Kalama competes and pulls off one of his aerial rotations, I bet he'll take the win.


4am significant buoy readings
South shore

W
3.2ft @ 14s from 135° (SE)

SW
3.9ft @ 14s from 163° (SSE)

SE
4.3ft @ 14s from 165° (SSE)

Pearl Harbor
0.5ft @ 5s from 154° (SSE)

Surfline did add the Pearl Harbor buoy to their list (link n.11), but it evidently needs some tuning as it only shows a tiny windswell reading, while the NOAA page shows 2.3f 14s. Don't worry, I'll email them again. In the meantime, we'll stick to the outer buoys that show still significant energy, but slightly less than yesterday afternoon. As predicted three days ago, the swell peaked during the night, but there's still plenty energy in the ocean and it should be another great day of surfing on the south shore. As usual, check the webcams before going. I'm off today and taking it easy and still home at 5.30am (unacceptable on working days!!), so that's what I'm doing. Lahaina still has solid head high plus sets like the one below.


North shore
Waimea
2ft @ 9s from 329° (NW)

Pauwela
4.9ft @ 8s from 83° (E)

The small NW swell disappeared at the Pauwela buoy, but Waimea indicates that it's still there (at Pauwela it's masked by the strong windswell). Nonetheless, it's a sign that the size is now down a lot and Hookipa at sunset was quite small. And that's how it should be also today.


The wind blew pretty hard yesterday, so I'm gonna officially ditch the other model (that was wrong again). We'll stick to this in the hope that the much superior MC2km will be back online one day. Blog reader Ben left a comment saying that this model "nailed the wind at peaks perfectly this morning 8-11 when we were out". Good job at seeing that (I find it difficult, because of the low res), this is 12pm.


North Pacific offers a weak WNW fetch and the windswell one. The low I marked is going to have the trajectory indicated by the red arrow and move away from us, which is obviously not the best from the wave generation point of view. Nonetheless, it will get stronger (specially tomorrow) and will provide us with a NE swell predicted by Surfline to peak at 5f 11s from 52 degrees on Monday (picking up all day Sunday). This is going to be the last ground swell for a while and I see hints of a strong trades episode for the first days of July. Kinda early to call it official, we'll see.


South Pacific shows a decently oriented moderate southerly fetch. 1.5f 18s early Tuesday morning is the predicted peak. There's also a fetch SW of New Zealand, which I would have not been aware of without the great circles fetches map on the right. I love those maps.


Morning sky looks clear and another stunning day is on its way.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

9am swell is rising. Lahaina has overhead sets light onshore. Ukumehame has good wind but a little washed out. Maalaea chest to occasionally head high but you gotta wait.

6am Maalaea looked small, head high sets in lahaina, but a bad morning sickness on it. I think it's inconsistent because of the narrow fetch as predicted by Pat Caldwell. More reports later.

Tuesday 6 20 17 morning call

The south shore keeps providing in this week of great surfing and Jason Hall is making the most of it.


Me too, but sometimes nature is just unpredictable. This is how pristine this spot looked throughout the duration of my lunch. It went onshore as soon as I paddled out and turned into junk in 2 minutes. Classic.


Levi Siver on the "occasional head high set" at Hookipa in the afternoon.


The stylish exit of the day award goes to Cookie.


2-3am significant buoy readings
South shore
W
2.6ft @ 17s from 161° (SSE)
2.1ft @ 12s from 141° (SE)

SW
3ft @ 17s from 192° (SSW)

SE
3.3ft @ 17s from 161° (SSE)

Solid numbers at the outer buoys, today it's gonna be at least head high everywhere and on the slow rise all day. Could be up to double overhead at the standout spots. I'm gonna use Pat Caldwell's words again to describe the fetches in the collage below (June 14,15,6 and 17).

The SW and SE Pacific mid latitudes have had active extra-tropical cyclones for allowing above average surf this week. It should make for overlapping swell energy from within 140-200 degrees.
A captured fetch of severe gale to storm-force winds moved NNE over the 190-200 degree band hugging the east side of New Zealand 6/13-14. The fetch was relatively narrow due to the proximity of the land mass. Seas grew within 30-40 feet. Gales pushed into the subtropics 6/15.

The pacioos american samoa buoy showed a sharp rise in the 18-22 second band 6/16. This extra-long wave period energy has risen at the NOAA southern Hawaii buoys 6/19 near day break. With a narrow focus in the wave spectrum, sets locally should be inconsistent, though at times making above average breakers Monday afternoon for zones of high refraction.

The american samoa buoy had a maximum in the 14-18 second energy late Friday through Saturday. The long-period swell should be filled in locally above average by Tuesday, with a slow increase to a maximum Tuesday night well above average from 190-200 degrees. Swell energy from 190-200 degrees should slowly trend down, reaching average levels by Thursday and lingering into Friday.

A low pressure deepened near 50s, 160°W 6/15-16 reaching severe gale status. The magnitude of winds and seas was lower than the former, though it had a wider fetch. Seas grew to around 25 feet with a direct aim at Hawaii over the 175-190 degree band.

Long-period forerunners are due Wednesday night, with the event climbing above average Thursday, .peaking Thursday night, and holding above average on Friday. Heights should fall to near to a notch above the summer average on Saturday from near due south.

Wave energy in Hawaii this week is also expected from 140-160 degrees. A sequence of low pressure systems SW to S of Easter Island within 6/12-18 should make for a long-lived spell of SE swell. The first event should have long-period forerunners late Tuesday with the event peaking late Wednesday above average. The second event is on its heels, building Thursday and peaking Friday. It should linger near or a notch below average through the weekend.


North shore
NW101
4.4ft @ 10s from 309° (WNW)

Waimea
3.5ft @ 11s from 317° (NW)

Pauwela
4.6ft @ 8s from 88° (E)                      
2.5ft @ 11s from 335° (NNW)
 
Still waves at Hookipa up to the occasional head high set is my call again.

Wind map at 2pm.


Wind map at 2pm in this other model. Significant difference in the predicted wind strength. Could be the last time I post it if it ends up blowing strong instead.


North Pacific shows a small WNW fetch and the windswell one.


South Pacific has two small and weak closer fetches and one small but stronger more distant one.


Morning sky.

Monday, June 19, 2017

6am hookipa looked small. Lahaina is up to head high and clean. Smaller, but good conditions all along the road.