Friday, November 24, 2017

10 30am the area between launiupoko and lahaina has some wrap in the knee to waist high range with occasional bigger sets up to shoulder high. Windy west of it

Friday 11 24 17 morning call

A surf and a windsurf session for me yesterday. The wave sailing conditions on the west side were far from epic because the wind was way too strong for my taste (and skill).

Here's coworker Russ Faurot throwing an aerial on a closeout section. See all the wobbly peaks on the wave on the front? They're caused by the local windswell which is caused by the strong wind.

 Below is a video from a couple of years ago that shows how the texture of an epic wave there looks like.

This instead is a long (7 minutes and a half) video of a couple of really good days back in 2010. Check the period on that set towards the end of the second day.

This is how the wrap looked in the Puamana area, which was protected by the wind. Check how strong the wind looks on the outside.

4am significant buoy readings.
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys, the Surfline forecast calls for 1.2f 12s and that's tiny. In Lahaina, it should still be about the wrap today.

North shore
8.9ft @ 14s from 354° (N)           
7.4ft @ 10s from 353° (N)
8.9ft @ 13s from 353° (N)
8.8ft @ 11s from 358° (N)

6.3ft @ 10s from 2° (N)
6.2ft @ 14s from 10° (N)
I don't know how to explain the 2.5f of difference between Waimea and Mokapu, I think Pauwela would show similar numbers to Waimea. So, still pretty solid energy from the N on tap today. Strong wind on the north and west shores will make the search for clean waves challenging, but there might be spots that are sheltered. I heard Honolua wasn't that good yesterday, plus the access is difficult as they're building the structures for the upcoming WSL women contest that starts tomorrow. They're gonna have plenty swells to choose from.

Fortunately at Honolua the trades are offshore, because they're going to be pretty strong the next few days. The end of the 10 days Windguru table below looks even worse, with some horribly strong easterly trades in the first days of December. Hopefully I'll have a Maliko 200 foil by then, so I can give the foiling downwinders another try. Or maybe I should say that hopefully I won't have one, since it's going to be very rough out there.

Wind map at noon shows moderate NE trades.

North Pacific continues to show northerly fetches: a close windswell one and a distant strong N one of which we will get some angular spreading. 7f 14s from 357 predicted by Surfline on Monday.

South Pacific doesn't have any fetches of relevance.

Morning sky.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Thursday 11 23 17 morning call

Shortboard and longboard session for me yesterday, I spent the whole day at the harbor (it was lovely, despite the frequent squalls).

This is the first shot I took at the jetty wonder.

Three young foilers.

Austin Kalama's new move. He started trying this backflip a couple of days ago and hopes to complete one within a couple of weeks. I think he will.

Don't know the name of this young girl.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys. The Surfline forecast calls for 1.4f 14s, but the Lahaina area will have some wrap from the north swell. Could be pretty big, actually.

North shore
14.5ft @ 15s from 10° (N)
3.4ft @ 10s from 353° (N)

9.8ft @ 15s from 357° (N)
6.8ft @ 11s from 2° (N)
5.8ft @ 9s from 355° (N)

10ft @ 15s from 5° (N)
6.8ft @ 9s from 4° (N)
The new north swell hit during the night and today the whole north shore will be a giant mess. The only surfable place will be the harbor, even though the wind is already blowing around 20mph at 5am. The place to go to find cleaner waves is the west side. I believe even Honolua will be too big to be good, but I'd love to hear that I was wrong (and see a picture of it).

I say that because last year Adriano De Souza came to Maui for a similar swell and found it all washed up. He ended up scoring some amazing barrels at Rainbows in Kaanapali though, and today the place should be firing again.
Below is the graphs of N (right) and Mokapu buoys, together with the Surfline forecast for the next three days. Pat Caldwell says that for these kind of swells the WW3 model tends to bias low for the output point at the Waimea buoy, but the Surfline forecast (which is based on it) is spot on once again.

In comparison, look how lame is the Rainbows spot forecast from Magicseaweed.
0-1f in the left column makes no sense with an open ocean swell of 3.5f 15s, and even that is a completely wrong prediction, as the portion of the energy that will make it down the coast through the Pailolo channel between Maui and Molokai on such a powerful N swell will be much more than that.

I have nothing against MSW in particular (I use it a lot when I go to Indo), but my point is that the "global" wave forecast sites (Surfline included!), don't have the local knowledge to predict what an open ocean swell will do at each single spot. That's why I prefer to ONLY check the open ocean swell forecast (and my favorite is the Surfline one, link n.15) and then rely on my personal local knowledge to guess the size and conditions at the local spots. And that's what I'm trying to share/teach on this page.

Wind map at noon show light to moderate trades, stronger on the west side. Since it's not a secret anymore, I'm gonna call for an absolutely epic wave sailing day on that side. Conditions that happen only once every 5 years or so. Don't even bother if you're not an expert sailor, the place is extremely challenging and loves to eat gear up.

More northerly energy in the North Pacific.

Little very distant fetch in the South Pacific, we're not gonna get much out of it. Lovely day in New Zealand surrounded by a high pressure.

Morning sky.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Wednesday 11 22 17 morning call

Double longboard session for me yesterday. This is the jetty wonder from the other side. Still going off, it's been amazing. Notice the water mountains outside the harbor.

This is a short video of Kai Lenny foiling on the same wave last Thursday 11 16, shot by Jason Hall with my camera.

3am significant buoy readings
South shore

No indication of southerly energy at the outer buoys, that's what I was expecting, seen the strong northerly one in the water. Both Surfline and Pat Caldwell predict the rise of a 1f 15s swell during the day.

North shore
8.4ft @ 10s from 356° (N)

6.3ft @ 12s from 16° (NNE)
5.3ft @ 10s from 9° (N)
4.1ft @ 8s from 3° (N)

8.1ft @ 11s from 4° (N)
2.4ft @ 5s from 19° (NNE)

Still plenty northerly energy at the buoys this morning. It is supposed to slowly go down (I doubt the decrease will be very noticeable), before picking up again in the afternoon for a new big N swell that should reach around 11-12f 15s tomorrow morning. I don't see it at any buoys yet, but there's so much energy in the water, that doesn't mean it's not there.

Bottom line is: lots of energy in the water on the north shore, got to look for sheltered spots or cruise to the west side. The lovely spell of light winds that made the waves surfable all day is about to end. The Windguru table below shows that we're about to slammed with some strong trades for at least 10 days, but today it looks still ok, specially in the morning.

Wind map at noon shows light NE winds, stronger on the west side.

North shore continues to show a strong N fetch, with the addition of a small NW one.

Nothing in the South Pacific.

Morning sky and more air moving in from the north.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Tuesday 11 21 17 morning call

Shortboard and longboard sessions in the harbor for me yesterday,, both very fun. When the waves are this good, I'd still rather surf.

Between the two sessions I took some photos of the jetty wonder, which I consider the most entertaining wave to watch in Maui. Let's start with a sequence showing surfer Justice Patao setting up a barrel on a double up bomb. Micheal Stuart saw it happening and jumped on his board to celebrate in advance.

Totally shacked.

And rightfully claiming it. Notice Michael underwater still holding his board with his hand.

Michael's turn to get barreled on his wave storm.

The rail digs and that won't allow an exit on this one.

 Some lefts were fun too.

Missed the grab, but the shot is really cool with that colorful board.

This wave is the definition of "double up". That looks like my coworker Keoni Perkins, about to do the second drop.

This longboarder caught a rail and his whole board went underwater, resulting in a fun (to watch) wipeout.

Redemption came soon after.
4am significant buoy readings
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the outer buoys. The surfline forecast calls for 1.6f 11s. There should be a 15s small new swell starting tomorrow.
North shore
10ft @ 12s from 7° (N)
5.2ft @ 10s from 357° (N)
8.5ft @ 13s from 11° (NNE)
6.3ft @ 9s from 5° (N)
8.9ft @ 13s from 11° (NNE)
5ft @ 10s from 3° (N)
Solid numbers at the buoys, the higher period component came down a couple of seconds compared to yesterday, the lower period one staying steady instead. Overall, it should be a similar day to yesterday. Light winds in the early morning, but getting onshore throughout the day. Better hit it early.
This remarkably extended period of northerly energy will continue, as explained by Pat Caldwell: The Gulf of Alaska source continues to dominate the surf for Hawaii with N to NNE swell as a blocking ridge near the Date Line keeps WNW to NNW surf near nil. More of the same through the week with hints of a change next week.
And from what I see in the long term forecast, the WSL ladies should have pretty epic conditions for their last contest of the season at Honolua Bay, which starts Nov. 25.
Wind map at noon shows light northerly winds on the north shore. Bit stronger on the west side. 
North Pacific shows again a strong northerly fetch. 11.6f 15s from 355 predicted by Surfline on Thursday.
South Pacific shows a small and weak southerly fetch.
Morning sky with more cold air coming down from the north.

Monday, November 20, 2017

11am the harbor is going off

Monday 11 20 17 morning call

Double SUP foiling session at the harbor for me yesterday. The wind kept blowing hard and then stopping after the rain, so it was a matter of timing it right.

This is Oahu's Sam Pa'e in a remarkable photo showing the failing tuttle box installation on his foil SUP. I'm having my second SUP board "retro-foiled", hopefully it'll be stronger than that.

This is Zane Schweitzer doing what he does: foiling spots that are not good for normal people because too shallow.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore

No indication of southerly energy at the outer buoys. That is no surprise, seen the strong N energy in the water. The Surfline forecast calls for 1.6f 12s. Plus, the Lahaina/Puamana area will most likely get the wrap from the north.

North shore
10.8ft @ 13s from 354° (N)
4.7ft @ 10s from 348° (NNW)
8.8ft @ 13s from 355° (N)
4.9ft @ 9s from 353° (N)

8.1ft @ 13s from 3° (N)
4.9ft @ 9s from 1° (N)
Pretty big numbers at the buoys, Hookipa will be a giant mess, look for sheltered spots. West side going to go off.
Wind map at noon shows light NW wind, but the early morning should be glassy/offshore.

Another strong N fetch in the North Pacific. 12f 15s from 356 predicted by Surfline on Thursday.

Nothing from the South Pacific.

Morning sky. More cold air coming down from the north. It's officially sweater as soon as you get out of bed time.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

9am the nw wind is here

7am Hookipa looked big and bad. The harbor has clean small waves with no wind at the moment. Remember, the nw wind is predicted to start blowing between 9 and 10am

Sunday 1 19 17 morning call

A longboard session in Lahaina for me yesterday. This is the only photo of the day I have.

This is the amazing sunset in a photo by Jimmie Hepp.

4am significant buoy readings
South shore
No indication of southerly energy at the buoys (probably too much energy from the north), the Surfline forecasts calls for 1.7f 14s from SSW.

North shore
12.4ft @ 15s from 7° (N)

8.6ft @ 14s from 2° (N)

5.6ft @ 9s from 360° (N)
4.4ft @ 13s from 348° (NNW)
3.1ft @ 15s from 355° (N)
The big numbers at the NW001 buoy show the rise of the new N swell predicted to arrive today. Below is the graph of it (left), together with the graph of Waimea (middle, definitely on the way up) and the Surfline forecast for Maui's north shore. The yellow line on this last one is the new N swell and it's predicted to reach 11f 12s at sunset.

Here's how Pat Caldwell described this swell:The combined remote and nearby generated swell should make a less organized breaker pattern Sunday 11/19 under a moderate onshore winds-- adding chop.
In other words: big, but no clean surf today, unless you find a sheltered spot.

This is the wind map at 10am showing the approach of the moderate NW wind. I linked this model in the GP's meteo website list (link n. -4), you have to adjust the "tau" parameter to change the time. Hawaii time is 10h before the Z time indicated on top of the picture.

This is the mat at noon HST (22Z) and it shows the moderate NW that will blow for the rest of the day. Catch it early, because it's gonna be pretty bad later on. Unfortunately already shows 13mph from NW at 6am in Kahului.

North Pacific shows a northerly fetch very close to us.

South Pacific shows a strong fetch oriented towards the Americas of which we should get some angular spreading in a week. 1f 16 on Sunday and 1.5f 15s predicted by Surfline on Sunday and Monday respectively.

Morning sky shows a big band of clouds SE of us. The red arrow indicates the way the air is moving in from the north, so it's gonna get a bit colder.